A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
